Heterogeneous Correlation Mapping between Rainfall Variability in Lake Toba and Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature
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Abstract
Rainfall variability in the Lake Toba watershed of North Sumatra is influenced by large-scale ocean–atmosphere in-teractions, particularly those involving sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Indian Ocean. This study applies Heterogeneous Correlation Mapping (HCM) to examine the spatially varying relationship between monthly rainfall at 13 meteorological stations and SST over the Indian Ocean warm pool (5°S–10°N, 60°E–80°E) during 1981–2014. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) is employed to extract dominant coupled modes of SST–rainfall variability. Results indicate that a six-month lag yields the strongest coupling, with the leading mode explaining 88.5% of the total variance. A clear spatial heterogeneity is observed: stations such as Lumban Julu and Silaen exhibit stronger SST–rainfall correlations, while others show weaker responses, likely due to topographic and local climatic modulation. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for spatial and temporal structures in hydroclimatic teleconnection analysis and offer insights for improving seasonal rainfall prediction in mountainous tropical regions
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