Feasibility Study of an Active Dry Yeast Plant Based Sugarcane Molasses Fermentation in Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia's imports of dry baker's yeast rose from 4,610 t in 2020 to 9,488 t in 2024, while domestic sugar mills face a molasses surplus. This study assesses the preliminary techno-economic feasibility of a 6,000 t/year active dry yeast (ADY) plant that converts sugarcane molasses with Saccharomyces cerevisiae. It integrates a scenario-based market analysis, a fully reported Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for selecting the fermentation mode, drying method and site, mass and energy balances, HACCP-based food-safety design, preliminary HAZOP screening, and a discounted cash-flow (DCF) analysis with sensitivity and scenario tests. The projected 2029 supply gap ranges from 11,042 to 47,953 t/year (base case 19,532 t/year). Multistage fermentation with batch seed propagation and intermittent fed-batch production stages, fluidized-bed drying, and a site in JIIPE, Gresik, East Java, were selected; the site ranking was robust to ±50% changes in all criteria weights. At a biomass yield of 0.47 g/g sugar the plant requires about 23,980 t/year of molasses. After correcting the classification of the initial raw-material stock, the total capital investment is IDR 744.8 billion. Under the stated assumptions, the project IRR is 31.5%, the NPV at a weighted average cost of capital of 8.3% is IDR 1,534 billion, and the payback period is 3.3 years after start-up. Product price is the decisive variable: the NPV becomes negative below an ex-factory price of about IDR 97,300/kg. The plant is therefore feasible at a preliminary level, conditional on price, market and capital-cost assumptions that require verification.