Nonlinear EVM Based on Support Vector Regression Growth Model for Predicting Project Completion Time

Abstrak

Earned Value Management (EVM) is a method used to monitor and to predict
project completion time. This method uses a linear approach in predicting
project time completion. Unfortunately, most of the projects run in dynamic
environments with complex characteristics, causing project progress to
require a non-linear approach. That is why the use of EVM in monitoring and
predicting non-linear project completion time is less effective. This study
proposes a more realistic alternative approach using non-Linear EVM based
on the Support Vector Regression (SVR) - Growth Model. The SVR-growth
model is used to accommodate the non-linear progress of the project, while the
EVM is used to represent the predicted results of the project completion time.
For model validation, 5 data on oil and gas field development construction
projects in Jawa, Bali and Nusa Tenggara Regions were used as case studies.
The results of this study indicate that the results of project completion time
prediction using the SVR-Growth Model provide high accuracy and precision
compared to the traditional EVM method.