Siklus dan Model Perkiraan Kejadian Gempabumi di Daerah Bengkulu Sabar Ardiansyah

Abstract

Before a major earthquake occurs, it will usually be preceded by a pattern or cycle of seismicity . This cycle includes a period of normal , anomalous period marked by increased activity , precursory gap period is characterized by a decrease in seismic activity , and the period of occurrence of major earthquakes . The purpose of this study is to look at seismic cycle and the model (equation) estimates the occurrence of earthquakes in the region for the purposes of estimating the Bengkulu earthquake magnitude that will occur based on the model created . The datas used is a catalog of seismic data for M > 4.5 in the Bengkulu area in the range of 1971 to 2013 were taken through the USGS catalog. The method used to estimate the magnitude of an earthquake model calculations using the predictive regressions with weighted linear regression calculation. Based on the analysis, a model that has been made indicates that the current estimated Bengkulu area have the potential earthquake with the strength of M > 7.5 seismicity cycle Bengkulu area entered a period of precursory gap is characterized by a decrease in seismic activity.