Pemanfaatan Model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) dalam Analisis Cuaca terkait Hujan Lebat Batam 30-31 Januari 2011 Akhmad Fadholi, Fitria Puspita Sari, Purwo Aji, Ristiana Dewi

Abstract

Heavy rain in Batam 30-31 January 2011 causes flood. The accumulation of rainfall until 31 January 2011 is 414.5 mm, it exceeds BMKG’s threshold about intensity of extreme condition, that more than 50 mm/day. It is related to dynamic of weather’s parameter, especially with convection process and clouds. In this case, weather condition analysis uses Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model one domain with 6 kilometer (km) resolution on 1⁰ N and 104⁰ E. Some weather’s parameters show significant result. Their fluctuations prove there is a strong convection that produces convective cloud (Cumulonimbus) so that cloud has a long lifetime and produce rain. Default setting and without nesting on WRF Model show good output to represent weather’s condition commonly. Difference between output rainfall rate of observation result and output of model around 6-12 hours is because spinning-up of processing. Satellite Images of MTSAT (Multifunctional Transport Satellite) are used as a verification data to prove the result of WRF. White color of satellite image is Coldest Dark Grey (CDG) that indicate there is cloud’s top which temperature lower than -80⁰ C. This image consolidate that the output of WRF is good enough to analyze Batam’s condition when the case happened.