The Evolution of Minimum Revenue Guarantees (MRGs) in PPP Infrastructure Investment

Abstrak

This study investigates the evolution of minimum revenue guarantees (MRGs) in
public-private partnership (PPP) infrastructure investment, tracing their
development from basic risk mitigation instruments to dynamic, strategically
optimized, and sustainability oriented financial mechanisms. A qualitative
research design was employed using systematic thematic synthesis of peer
reviewed literature indexed in Scopus and Web of Science (WoS) up to February
2026. The review screened 415 records and identified 44 eligible articles for
analysis, comprising 5 studies published up to 2010, 8 during 2011 to 2015, 16
during 2016 to 2020, and 15 during 2021 to 2026. The findings reveal four
evolutionary phases characterized by advances in real options valuation, risk
sharing optimization, game theoretic contract design, adaptive profit distribution,
and sustainability focused applications. The study proposes a unified conceptual
framework consisting of three interrelated dimensions: strategic and game
theoretic contract optimization, adaptive and performance linked guarantee
mechanisms, and sustainability-oriented sector specific financial structuring. The
framework contributes to theory by integrating historical and contemporary
developments into a comprehensive roadmap for MRG design. Practically, it
provides guidance for policymakers and practitioners seeking to balance fiscal
sustainability, investor incentives, and long-term infrastructure resilience. The
study is limited by its reliance on qualitative literature synthesis and highlights
opportunities for future empirical, quantitative, and digital finance research to
further refine adaptive MRG frameworks.