Model Epidemi SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) pada Penyebaran Penyakit HIV/AIDS di Provinsi Sumatera Utara

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Published: Apr 16, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.12962/limits.v23i1.3454
Keywords:
HIV/AIDS, SIR, Ekuilibrium, Basic Reproduction Number

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Miranda Olivia
Universitas Samudra
Fitra Muliani
Universitas Samudra
Ulya Nabilla
Universitas Samudra

Abstract

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is a virus that attacks the immune system, especially the white blood cells.  HIV progresses to Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) if not treated effectively. Generally, people with this disease have several symptoms such as fever, chills, rash, muscle pain, sore throat, and fatigue. HIV/AIDS can cause serious complications, such as heart disease, nervous disorders, and problems with the digestive system, even death. North Sumatra ranks fifth nationally for HIV/AIDS sufferers.  Mathematical modeling in the spread of HIV/AIDS aims to analyze the equilibrium point, analyze the rate of spread of HIV/AIDS, and project the number of cases in the future. This model involves three variables, namely Susceptible (S), Infected (I), and Recovered (R). The research data were obtained from Dinas Kesehatan Sumatera Utara dan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Provinsi Sumatera Utara. The results showed that the equilibrium point is stable. The transmission rate is 0.000129/day. By using Next Generation Matrix (NGM), the basic reproduction number ( ) is 28.981. It means that the disease will become endemic over a long period of time.

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How to Cite
Olivia, M., Muliani, F. ., & Nabilla, U. . (2026). Model Epidemi SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) pada Penyebaran Penyakit HIV/AIDS di Provinsi Sumatera Utara. Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications, 23(1), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.12962/limits.v23i1.3454
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Vol. 23 No. 1 (2026): Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Volume 23 Nomor 1 Edisi April 2025
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Articles

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