Model Matematika COVID-19 dengan Vaksinasi Dua Tahap, Karantina, dan Pengobatan Mandiri
Keywords:
Bilangan Reproduksi Dasar, COVID-19, Karantina, Vaksinasi, Kestabilan Titik EkuilibirumAbstract
Penelitian ini mengembangkan model SEIR untuk memodelkan penyebaran COVID-19 dengan menambahkan vaksinasi dua tahap, isolasi mandiri, karantina di rumah sakit, dan pengobatan mandiri. Pembentukan model diawali dengan membuat asumsi dan diagram transfer penyebaran COVID-19 dengan populasi dibagi menjadi sembilan subpopulasi yaitu subpopulasi rentan, subpopulasi vaksinasi dosis 1, subpopulasi vaksinasi dosis 2, subpopulasi laten, subpopulasi terinfeksi, subpopulasi isolasi mandiri, subpopulasi karantina di rumah sakit, subpopulasi pengobatan mandiri, dan subpopulasi removed, kemudian dibentuk sistem persamaan diferensial nonlinear. Dari analisis model diperoleh titik ekuilibrium bebas penyakit, titik ekuilibrium endemik penyakit, dan bilangan reproduksi dasar (R0). Titik ekuilibrium bebas penyakit stabil asimtotik lokal ketika R0<1. Eksistensi titik ekuilbirum endemik terdapat satu atau tiga akar positif jika R0>1 dan terdapat nol atau dua akar positif jika R0<1. Bifurkasi mundur terjadi pada kondisi R0<1 sehingga diperoleh persamaan bifurkasi mundur R0c<R0<1. Simulasi numerik untuk model yang dibuat sesuai dengan analisis yang telah dilakukan. Analisis sensitivitas diperoleh parameter yang berpengaruh signifikan pada penyebaran COVID-19 adalah tingkat kontak dengan individu terinfeksi dan tingkat perpindahan vaksinasi dosis satu.
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